The strategic value of the Ukraine will dictate what happens there. What’s so valuable? Take a look at the map below of Russia’s pipelines flowing through the Ukraine to western Europe. Do you think Putin will let the West gain control of those?
The link between organized crime and the Russian and Ukranian governments further complicates things. See here: RUSSIAN MOB REAL POWER BEHIND UKRAINE PRESIDENT?
And note that the crime lord mentioned in that blog post, Semyon Mogilevich, one of FBI’s most wanted people, lives in … Moscow, where even billionaire oligarchs have learned nothing happens without Putin’s approval.
The Ukraine could get very messy before a solution is found.